Preseason Rankings
America East
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
124 Vermont 50.0%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 4 +2.9      +2.9 97 -0.1 170 61.0 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 Hartford 17.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 6 -1.8      0.0 169 -1.7 237 66.3 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 Maryland Baltimore Co. 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 -3.2      -2.7 251 -0.6 184 69.4 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 Stony Brook 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 7 -3.6      -4.6 294 +1.0 134 69.6 161 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Binghamton 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 8 -6.0      -4.3 288 -1.7 234 65.3 272 0.0 1 0.0 1
278 Albany 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 9 -6.2      -4.7 299 -1.5 225 65.6 267 0.0 1 0.0 1
306 Umass Lowell 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 10 -8.3      -2.6 249 -5.7 329 76.6 33 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 New Hampshire 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 6 - 10 -9.2      -6.5 328 -2.7 271 63.3 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
327 Maine 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 11 -11.1      -8.2 343 -2.9 277 76.0 40 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Vermont 2.0 54.9 20.6 10.4 6.3 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2
Hartford 3.3 20.7 22.3 17.4 13.8 9.9 6.5 4.6 3.2 1.6
Maryland Baltimore Co. 3.9 14.2 17.5 17.3 14.6 11.6 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.3
Stony Brook 4.1 12.7 17.5 16.3 14.0 12.5 10.6 7.6 5.4 3.4
Binghamton 5.0 6.4 10.2 12.9 13.5 13.7 14.0 12.5 10.4 6.6
Albany 5.1 5.7 10.1 12.2 13.6 14.5 13.6 12.6 10.4 7.3
Umass Lowell 5.9 2.9 5.5 8.2 11.1 12.8 14.0 15.7 16.3 13.4
New Hampshire 6.3 2.1 4.0 6.9 9.4 11.1 14.7 16.2 17.9 17.9
Maine 7.0 0.9 2.6 3.4 6.1 8.7 12.7 15.8 21.3 28.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Vermont 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.0 6.0 9.1 11.8 14.5 16.6 15.3 12.0 6.0
Hartford 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.0 7.6 10.1 12.5 13.2 13.6 12.0 9.5 5.7 3.0 0.8
Maryland Baltimore Co. 9 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.6 8.0 9.8 11.5 13.4 12.4 11.5 9.7 6.1 3.9 1.5 0.4
Stony Brook 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.5 8.3 10.7 11.7 12.5 12.3 11.3 8.8 6.0 3.5 1.2 0.3
Binghamton 8 - 8 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.3 7.5 9.5 12.4 11.9 12.3 11.7 9.6 7.1 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
Albany 7 - 9 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.9 11.7 12.4 13.1 11.6 9.2 6.8 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
Umass Lowell 6 - 10 0.9 3.0 5.3 8.3 11.2 12.2 13.2 12.2 10.8 8.5 6.6 4.0 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
New Hampshire 6 - 10 1.3 3.8 6.9 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.8 11.6 9.6 7.4 4.4 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Maine 5 - 11 2.7 7.0 11.0 13.5 14.3 13.7 12.0 9.7 6.6 4.3 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Vermont 54.9% 43.1 9.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
Hartford 20.7% 13.1 6.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland Baltimore Co. 14.2% 8.5 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 12.7% 7.6 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Binghamton 6.4% 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Albany 5.7% 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Umass Lowell 2.9% 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Hampshire 2.1% 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maine 0.9% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Vermont 50.0% 49.4% 0.6% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 3.1 6.9 10.6 11.8 9.9 5.2 50.0 1.1%
Hartford 17.0% 17.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 3.5 4.9 5.3 83.0 0.1%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.5 4.6 88.6 0.0%
Stony Brook 10.0% 10.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.9 3.9 90.0 0.1%
Binghamton 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.9 95.3 0.0%
Albany 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 95.4 0.0%
Umass Lowell 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 97.9 0.0%
New Hampshire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maine 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Vermont 50.0% 2.6% 48.8% 7.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hartford 17.0% 3.2% 15.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 11.4% 2.7% 10.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 10.0% 2.0% 9.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Binghamton 4.7% 2.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Albany 4.6% 1.5% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Umass Lowell 2.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Hampshire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maine 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
1st Round 92.8% 0.9 7.2 92.3 0.4
2nd Round 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0